Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Nevada
3–4 · Ours #103 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–31FinalWe had NEV 16 – NDSU 28
North Dakota State
7–2 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 77%NDSU won
NDSU 77%NDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −15.NDSU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.3 · NEV covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 43.6.43final 48 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NEV +15.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
NEV +15.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
AJ Bianco17/34 · 190 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1426th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Nathan Hayes19/25 · 153 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Nevadaoffense | Played like NDSU +6.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.8%▼13.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.8%▲6.8 | 87th |
| 30th | −0.08▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.08 | 70th |
| 24th | −0.21▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▼0.12 | 76th |
| 65th | +0.15▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.20 | 35th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.9 | 85th |
| North Dakota Stateoffense | defenseNevada | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼6.9 | 58th |
| 38th | −0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.05 | 62nd |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.07 | 52nd |
| 35th | −0.06▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.03 | 65th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NevadaNEV | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2955th | Own 3482nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.6 pts26th | −0.7 pts25th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.449th | +0.451st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts73rd | +0.5 pts80th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NDSU +2.9: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.7, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +0.2, return touchdowns −4.2. | −2.935th | +2.965th |
Season so far
Nevada3–4 · 135th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10Lat North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5W
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5North Dakota State7–2 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
Wat Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5Wvs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5L
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5Wvs UTEP31–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is