Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
North Dakota State
7–2 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–21FinalWe had NDSU 18 – UNM 25
New Mexico
7–1 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNM 65%UNM won
UNM 65%UNM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNM −4.UNM −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.1 · UNM covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 43.0.39.5final 37 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNM −4.5Wmatched the close
UNM −4.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nathan Hayes17/33 · 198 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 51.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Toa Fa'avae8/14 · 92 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.409th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Played like UNM +4.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNew Mexico | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.4%▼12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.4%▲5.1 | 91st |
| 12th | −0.23▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▼0.05 | 88th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▼0.16 | 68th |
| 6th | −0.39▼0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.10 | 94th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.2 | 85th |
| New Mexicooffense | defenseNorth Dakota State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 32.8%▼11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.8%▲3.4 | 80th |
| 17th | −0.18▼0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.04 | 83rd |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.10 | 88th |
| 29th | −0.10▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.08 | 71st |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota StateNDSU | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3058th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts55th | −3.5 pts3rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.658th | −2.642nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts29th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNM +2.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.8, kicking −2.7, 4th downs +0.5. | −2.239th | +2.261st |
Season so far
North Dakota State7–2 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5W
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5Lat New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5W
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5New Mexico7–1 · 127th-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
L
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5Wvs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5W
at Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5
at Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5Wvs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5
vs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5W
at San José State21–16missed −14.5
at San José State21–16missed −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is