Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
North Dakota State
7–2 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–13FinalWe had NDSU 27 – UNLV 21
UNLV
4–3 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 66%UNLV won
NDSU 66%UNLV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −3.5.NDSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · UNLV covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.3.48final 20 · under by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NDSU −3.5Llost 1.0 to the close
NDSU −3.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nathan Hayes12/22 · 124 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Arnold8/16 · 77 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2914th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Played like UNLV +4.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUNLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.4%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.4%▲7.6 | 77th |
| 9th | −0.28▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.34 | 91st |
| 26th | −0.19▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.12 | 75th |
| 8th | −0.35▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.42 | 92nd |
| 1st | 4▼3.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.0 | 99th |
| UNLVoffense | defenseNorth Dakota State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.1%▼1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.1%▼1.5 | 68th |
| 13th | −0.23▼0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.09 | 87th |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▼0.03 | 82nd |
| 19th | −0.20▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.20 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Dakota StateNDSU | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2741st | Own 2953rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts16th | −1.3 pts19th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.455th | −1.446th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.4 pts2nd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNLV +10.4: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.6, kicking +0.1, 4th downs +1.9. | −10.49th | +10.491st |
Season so far
North Dakota State7–2 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17Lat UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5W
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5L
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5W
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP31–7covered −23.5UNLV4–3 · 103rd-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1Wvs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5Lat Air Force31–41missed −1
at Air Force31–41missed −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is