Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
UTEP
1–6 · Ours #135Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–35Our projected score
North Dakota State
6–2 · Ours #46Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 93%
NDSU 93%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.NDSU −23.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −24.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −25.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.44oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 44.9 · opened 44.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.NDSU −23.5-110 FanDuel50% to cover · -3.9% EV
NDSU −23.5-110 FanDuel50% to cover · -3.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Raymond Moore IIISophomore · 2 starts this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.28
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 14
Took over mid-game last game
Nathan HayesSenior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0972nd
- Comp %
- 62.8
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 77 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| North Dakota Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseUTEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.17 | 124th |
| 113th | 39.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 49.1% | 133rd |
| 78th | +0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.26 | 126th |
| 123rd | −0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 99th |
| 57th | 13.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.3% | 100th |
| UTEPoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134th | −0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.16 | 4th |
| 134th | 35.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 35.7% | 19th |
| 133rd | −0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.31 | 1st |
| 108th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.06 | 32nd |
| 100th | 11.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.6% | 72nd |
Team stats
| North Dakota StateNDSU | UTEPUTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +5.52nd | −3.5132nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.274th | +1.067th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 52%59th | 36%134th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.52102nd | 3.32118th |
| Time of possession | 30:3032nd | 29:1859th |
| Plays per game | 6581st | 58134th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +9 | −9 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 21 | 18 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 17.1%18th | 11.2%125th |
Season so far
UTEP1–6 · 47th-hardest schedule
L
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5L
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11L
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5L
vs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10L
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-game
vs San José State11–24missed +7QB change mid-gameNorth Dakota State6–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25W
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5Wvs Nevada31–17missed −14.5
vs Nevada31–17missed −14.5Lat New Mexico16–21missed +4.5
at New Mexico16–21missed +4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is