Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
NC State
4–4 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–35FinalWe had NCSU 27 – VAN 33
Vanderbilt
3–5 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VAN 65%VAN won
VAN 65%VAN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VAN −4.VAN −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6 · VAN covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.1.50.5final 66 · over by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.VAN −4.5Llost 1.5 to the close
VAN −4.5Llost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
CJ Bailey25/37 · 264 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2060th pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jared Curtis20/34 · 277 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3373rd pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC Stateoffense | Played like VAN +15.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVanderbilt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 40.3%▼2.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲8.2 | 57th |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.01 | 38th |
| 63rd | +0.19▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19 | 37th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.02 | 46th |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| Vanderbiltoffense | defenseNC State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.2%▲10.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.2%▼1.8 | 28th |
| 92nd | +0.43▲0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.17 | 8th |
| 75th | +0.33▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▲0.05 | 25th |
| 97th | +0.59▲0.67 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.59▼0.41 | 3rd |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC StateNCSU | VanderbiltVAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 3063rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts53rd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7794th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.922nd | +9.978th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts79th | +0.9 pts91st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VAN +4.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +1.9, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −4.529th | +4.571st |
Season so far
NC State4–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
Lat Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13W
vs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5L
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5L
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5W
vs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Vanderbilt3–5 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5Wvs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5L
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5L
at Kentucky17–34missed +11
at Kentucky17–34missed +11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is