Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Louisville
5–3 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–31FinalWe had LOU 30 – NCSU 27
NC State
4–4 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LOU 58%NCSU won
LOU 58%NCSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LOU −5.5.LOU −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3 · NCSU covered by 8
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.4.56.5final 59 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NCSU +3.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
NCSU +3.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Lincoln Kienholz21/30 · 254 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
CJ Bailey24/40 · 373 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5186th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisvilleoffense | Played like LOU +12.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNC State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | 49.0%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.0%▼2.8 | 25th |
| 90th | +0.40▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.14 | 10th |
| 55th | +0.11▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.32 | 45th |
| 100th | +0.94▲0.68 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.94▼0.84 | 1st |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| NC Stateoffense | defenseLouisville | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.3%▼3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.3%▲2.6 | 59th |
| 64th | +0.15▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.08 | 37th |
| 85th | +0.48▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.41 | 15th |
| 19th | −0.20▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.28 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisvilleLOU | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 2631st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.7 pts90th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 8498th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +13.785th | −13.715th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NCSU +7.1: turnovers +5.2, kicking +1.2, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −7.119th | +7.181st |
Season so far
Louisville5–3 · 28th-hardest schedule
L
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3L
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5Lat NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5W
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5W
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5NC State4–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13Wvs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5Lvs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5Lat Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5W
vs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is