Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1
NC State
4–4 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
8–34FinalWe had NCSU 28 – UVA 28
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 50%UVA won
UVA 50%UVA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −5.5.UVA −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · UVA covered by 22
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.2.50.5final 42 · under by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NCSU +5.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
NCSU +5.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
CJ Bailey12/23 · 84 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3711th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Beau Pribula9/11 · 155 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4682nd pct
- Comp %
- 81.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC Stateoffense | Played like UVA +18.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.4%▼11.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.4%▲10.4 | 82nd |
| 18th | −0.18▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.33 | 83rd |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.44 | 82nd |
| 41st | −0.02▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.17 | 59th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Virginiaoffense | defenseNC State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼7.0 | 16th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.20 | 40th |
| 84th | +0.46▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.10 | 16th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.25 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NC StateNCSU | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 2953rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +2.0 pts94th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3714th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.05th | +24.095th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +1.4 pts98th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UVA +9.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.6, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +2.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −9.014th | +9.086th |
Season so far
NC State4–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
Lat Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3W
vs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13W
vs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5L
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5L
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5W
vs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
Wvs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5Lat Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is