Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–35FinalWe had M-OH 18 – CIN 37
Cincinnati
5–3 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CIN 87%CIN won
CIN 87%CIN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CIN −15.CIN −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.1 · M-OH covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.50.5final 66 · over by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CIN −14.5Lmatched the close
CIN −14.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
David McComb17/28 · 334 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2061st pct
- Comp %
- 60.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
JC French IV31/43 · 309 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2061st pct
- Comp %
- 72.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)offense | Played like CIN +16.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCincinnati | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.9%▲1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▲7.4 | 61st |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.25 | 66th |
| 64th | +0.20▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.06 | 36th |
| 5th | −0.41▼0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.58 | 95th |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Cincinnatioffense | defenseMiami (OH) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲8.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼8.7 | 22nd |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.12 | 26th |
| 64th | +0.20▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20 | 36th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.30 | 19th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)M-OH | CincinnatiCIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 3169th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.3 pts1st | −1.6 pts14th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5438th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.334th | +5.366th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.9 pts91st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CIN +8.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.3, kicking +1.9, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −8.515th | +8.585th |
Season so far
Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
Lat Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5L
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5W
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5W
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5W
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Cincinnati5–3 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Boston College34–15covered −7
vs Boston College34–15covered −7Wvs Western Carolina62–10covered −36
Wvs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5W
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6L
at Arizona7–34missed +7
at Arizona7–34missed +7L
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5W
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5L
vs Utah25–49missed +7
vs Utah25–49missed +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is