Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Akron
1–7 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–34FinalWe had AKR 18 – M-OH 32
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.M-OH 79%M-OH won
M-OH 79%M-OH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at M-OH −9.5.M-OH −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.5 · M-OH covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.4.48final 48 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.M-OH −10Wlost 0.5 to the close
M-OH −10Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brayden Roggow22/38 · 229 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 57.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Caleb Heavner8/16 · 65 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like M-OH +11.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiami (OH) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲9.0 | 75th |
| 26th | −0.11▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.27 | 74th |
| 31st | −0.13▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.39 | 69th |
| 33rd | −0.07▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.08 | 67th |
| 1st | 4▼3.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.5 | 99th |
| Miami (OH)offense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.2%▲4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▲4.5 | 53rd |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.12 | 44th |
| 8th | −0.49▼0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.49▲0.72 | 92nd |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.49 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.32 | 8th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | Miami (OH)M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2634th | Own 3586th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts16th | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.838th | +3.862nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −0.3 pts32nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. M-OH +9.4: turnovers +7.8, field position +3.1, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs −1.5. | −9.413th | +9.487th |
Season so far
Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5Lat Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5L
at Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5L
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5W
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5Wvs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5Wat Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is