Board · Tue, Nov 3 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #117Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–29Our projected score
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #97Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.M-OH 70%
M-OH 70%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.M-OH −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.6 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.0 · first seen 45.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.M-OH −6.5-102 FanDuel51% to cover · +0.9% EV
M-OH −6.5-102 FanDuel51% to cover · +0.9% EVThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Miami (OH)offense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseBuffalo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 76th |
| 96th | 40.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.1% | 41st |
| 102nd | −0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 90th |
| 70th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 57th |
| 24th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.3% | 65th |
| Buffalooffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMiami (OH) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120th | −0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.08 | 91st |
| 135th | 35.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.5% | 71st |
| 127th | −0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.16 | 107th |
| 88th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.03 | 40th |
| 134th | 9.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 8.8% | 11th |
Team stats
| Miami (OH)M-OH | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.025th | +3.56th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +7.67th | +1.554th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 54%49th | 42%121st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7093rd | 3.6894th |
| Time of possession | 28:4870th | 27:12107th |
| Plays per game | 58134th | 738th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 13 | 15 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.1%89th | 12.6%100th |
Season so far
Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10L
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
L
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5W
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7W
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5Lvs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5Wat Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5W
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5W
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is