Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–27FinalWe had M-OH 25 – CMU 21
Central Michigan
3–5 · Ours #131 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.M-OH 61%M-OH won
M-OH 61%M-OH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at M-OH +1.5.M-OH −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · CMU covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.6.40.5final 55 · over by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.M-OH −2.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
M-OH −2.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Caleb Heavner18/33 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Jadyn Glasser18/31 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0445th pct
- Comp %
- 58.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)offense | Played like CMU +1.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCentral Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.0%▲5.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.0%▲8.1 | 49th |
| 29th | −0.09▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.24 | 71st |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.35 | 85th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.06 | 28th |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| Central Michiganoffense | defenseMiami (OH) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.6%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.6%▲8.1 | 73rd |
| 38th | −0.03▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.18 | 63rd |
| 56th | +0.12▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.09 | 44th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.24 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Miami (OH)M-OH | Central MichiganCMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3062nd | Own 3583rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.4 pts57th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.378th | −10.322nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 799th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | −0.2 pts34th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CMU +6.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.5, kicking +0.3, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs −4.6, return touchdowns +4.2. | −6.821st | +6.880th |
Season so far
Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5L
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5W
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5W
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5Wat Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Central Michigan3–5 · 83rd-hardest schedule
L
at New Mexico7–38missed +11
at New Mexico7–38missed +11Wvs Colgate13–10missed −18.5
W
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1L
at Miami3–52missed +41
at Miami3–52missed +41Wvs Akron41–17covered −7
vs Akron41–17covered −7L
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5L
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5Lvs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5
vs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is