Week 8 report · Tue, Oct 20 · 2026 Week 8
South Alabama
4–4 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–20FinalWe had USA 34 – MRSH 31
Marshall
5–3 · Ours #123 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USA 57%MRSH won
USA 57%MRSH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USA −2.5.USA −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.6 · MRSH covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 64.5.66.5final 33 · under by 33.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USA −2.5Llost 1.0 to the close
USA −2.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jared Hollins12/33 · 148 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 36.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Zion Turner21/33 · 181 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1525th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Alabamaoffense | Played like MRSH +10.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMarshall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 36.0%▼8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.0%▲10.2 | 72nd |
| 28th | −0.09▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.29 | 72nd |
| 19th | −0.28▼0.70 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.63 | 81st |
| 54th | +0.07▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.03 | 46th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Marshalloffense | defenseSouth Alabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.5%▲5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▲1.1 | 27th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.33 | 50th |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.53 | 71st |
| 82nd | +0.28▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▲0.08 | 18th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South AlabamaUSA | MarshallMRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2522nd | Own 3482nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.8 pts24th | −2.2 pts9th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.528th | +7.572nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.8 pts99th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MRSH +2.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.3, kicking −1.0, 4th downs −2.4. | −2.637th | +2.664th |
Season so far
South Alabama4–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3Lat Marshall13–20missed −1.5
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5L
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6Marshall5–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameW
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5Wvs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 20, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is