Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Marshall
5–3 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–45FinalWe had MRSH 18 – PSU 39
AP #18Penn State
3–4 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 89%PSU won
PSU 89%PSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −24.5.PSU −23.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.9 · PSU covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.2.53final 45 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MRSH +24.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
MRSH +24.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Zion Turner2/3 · 1 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.87
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Rocco Becht13/18 · 271 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.0299th pct
- Comp %
- 72.2
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Alex Manske
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marshalloffense | Played like PSU +29.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.4%▼15.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.4%▲7.5 | 83rd |
| 14th | −0.21▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.18 | 86th |
| 35th | −0.08▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.22 | 65th |
| 4th | −0.44▼0.68 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.59 | 96th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Penn Stateoffense | defenseMarshall | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.4%▲12.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.4%▼8.3 | 19th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.24 | 14th |
| 98th | +0.96▲0.92 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.96▼0.86 | 2nd |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.33 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarshallMRSH | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2311th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.6 pts14th | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3511th | 3714th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −33.22nd | +33.299th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PSU +12.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.4, kicking +1.7, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −12.06th | +12.094th |
Season so far
Marshall5–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
Lat Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameW
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5W
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is