Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Marshall
5–3 · Ours #121 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–45FinalWe had MRSH 15 – JMU 38
James Madison
7–2 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 91%JMU won
JMU 91%JMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −15.5.JMU −15.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.6 · JMU covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.2.55.5final 62 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JMU −18.5Wlost 3.0 to the close
JMU −18.5Wlost 3.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Zion Turner8/12 · 88 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0546th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Camden Coleman21/31 · 263 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6291st pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marshalloffense | Played like JMU +18.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJames Madison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.6%▲1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.6%▼8.4 | 36th |
| 52nd | +0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.08 | 47th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.02 | 57th |
| 75th | +0.22▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.27 | 25th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| James Madisonoffense | defenseMarshall | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.1%▲11.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.1%▼10.3 | 14th |
| 92nd | +0.44▲0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.34 | 8th |
| 91st | +0.62▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.45 | 9th |
| 81st | +0.27▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.26 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarshallMRSH | James MadisonJMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts55th | −1.7 pts14th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7996th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −20.28th | +20.292nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts77th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JMU +3.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.1, kicking −1.4, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | −3.234th | +3.266th |
Season so far
Marshall5–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameW
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
Lat James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5W
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3James Madison7–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5Wat Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5Wvs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7W
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8L
at App State31–34missed −12.5
at App State31–34missed −12.5L
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is