Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Kansas State
4–4 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–28FinalWe had KSU 31 – ASU 25
Arizona State
4–3 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KSU 65%ASU won
KSU 65%ASU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −3.KSU −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.2 · ASU covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.51.5final 45 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KSU −3.5Llost 2.5 to the close
KSU −3.5Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jacob Knuth26/41 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3114th pct
- Comp %
- 63.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Mikey Keene10/20 · 160 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2465th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Cutter Boley
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansas Stateoffense | Played like ASU +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.5%▼14.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.5%▲11.4 | 83rd |
| 10th | −0.27▼0.42 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.35 | 90th |
| 17th | −0.31▼0.47 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.40 | 83rd |
| 17th | −0.22▼0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.30 | 83rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Arizona Stateoffense | defenseKansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.6%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▲1.5 | 69th |
| 38th | −0.03▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.06 | 62nd |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.06 | 52nd |
| 32nd | −0.09▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.10 | 68th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansas StateKSU | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2850th | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts51st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.126th | +8.174th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.6 pts1st | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ASU +2.3: field position +1.6, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | −2.339th | +2.362nd |
Season so far
Kansas State4–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5W
vs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3Lat Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1L
at Colorado24–27push +3
at Colorado24–27push +3Arizona State4–3 · 32nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5Wat Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21L
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-game
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-gameWvs Kansas State28–17covered +1
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is