Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Kansas State
4–4 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–31FinalWe had KSU 33 – CIN 25
Cincinnati
5–3 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KSU 69%CIN won
KSU 69%CIN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −6.5.KSU −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.1 · CIN covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.2.55final 57 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Avery Johnson29/49 · 275 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 59.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
JC French IV8/13 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansas Stateoffense | Played like CIN +4.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCincinnati | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲0.3 | 38th |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.03 | 31st |
| 54th | +0.10▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.18 | 46th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.30 | 12th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Cincinnatioffense | defenseKansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 42.0%▼0.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.0%▼5.0 | 49th |
| 81st | +0.29▲0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.32 | 19th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.21 | 30th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.37 | 15th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansas StateKSU | CincinnatiCIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 228th | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts68th | +1.0 pts75th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8096th | 5030th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.845th | +1.855th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CIN +1.2: field position +1.8, kicking +0.2, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.244th | +1.256th |
Season so far
Kansas State4–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5Lat Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5W
vs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3L
at Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1L
at Colorado24–27push +3
at Colorado24–27push +3Cincinnati5–3 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Boston College34–15covered −7
vs Boston College34–15covered −7Wvs Western Carolina62–10covered −36
W
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5Wvs Kansas State31–26covered +6
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6L
at Arizona7–34missed +7
at Arizona7–34missed +7L
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5W
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5L
vs Utah25–49missed +7
vs Utah25–49missed +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is