Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Kansas State
4–3 · Ours #50Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–22Our projected score
Colorado
2–5 · Ours #88Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.KSU 68%
KSU 68%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.COLO −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +7.4 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. +2
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.46.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.1 · opened 47.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Blake BarnettSophomore · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.70
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jacob Knuth started Week 8 · Out on the Game Day report
Isaac WilsonJunior · 4 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1162nd
- Comp %
- 59.8
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Coloradooffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.02 | 57th |
| 97th | 40.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.1% | 28th |
| 66th | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 73rd |
| 116th | −0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 50th |
| 30th | 14.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.5% | 121st |
| Kansas Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseColorado | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.02 | 42nd |
| 45th | 45.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.3% | 43rd |
| 59th | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 82nd |
| 46th | +0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.11 | 9th |
| 97th | 11.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.9% | 111th |
Team stats
| ColoradoCOLO | Kansas StateKSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −5.8137th | +1.730th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −7.5136th | +1.852nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 36%133rd | 57%31st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.18124th | 4.3052nd |
| Time of possession | 28:1884th | 30:2434th |
| Plays per game | 6843rd | 7122nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −8 | +1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 19 – 11 | 6 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 18.0%12th | 17.5%13th |
Season so far
Kansas State4–3 · 64th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5W
vs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3L
at Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1Colorado2–5 · 9th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5L
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5L
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is