Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–34FinalWe had WSU 22 – KSU 32
Kansas State
4–4 · Ours #30 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KSU 74%KSU won
KSU 74%KSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −19.KSU −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.6 · KSU covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.7.49final 41 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WSU +17.5Lmatched the close
WSU +17.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Pinnick9/20 · 65 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 45.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Avery Johnson22/33 · 192 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1556th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington Stateoffense | Played like KSU +24.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.8%▼4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.8%▲12.0 | 91st |
| 6th | −0.34▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.44 | 94th |
| 13th | −0.37▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.55 | 87th |
| 9th | −0.31▼0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.37 | 91st |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
| Kansas Stateoffense | defenseWashington State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.5%▲4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.5%▼6.4 | 30th |
| 54th | +0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.01 | 46th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.13 | 57th |
| 68th | +0.17▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.14 | 33rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington StateWSU | Kansas StateKSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 3165th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | +0.8 pts72nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3613th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −32.02nd | +32.098th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | +0.7 pts86th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WSU +1.1: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.7, kicking −2.2, 4th downs −1.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Washington State1–7 · 36th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24Lat Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4L
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5L
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5Kansas State4–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
Wvs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5W
vs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3L
at Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1L
at Colorado24–27push +3
at Colorado24–27push +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is