Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
James Madison
7–2 · Ours #34 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had JMU 36 – GASO 19
Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 86%JMU won
JMU 86%JMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −9.5.JMU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.6 · GASO covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.51final 51 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Camden Coleman16/27 · 171 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 59.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Max Johnson26/38 · 343 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3776th pct
- Comp %
- 68.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James Madisonoffense | Played like GASO +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Southern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.1%▼1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.1%▼0.6 | 48th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.14 | 34th |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.10 | 34th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.13 | 37th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Georgia Southernoffense | defenseJames Madison | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.2%▲3.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.2%▼9.1 | 34th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.22 | 32nd |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.37 | 27th |
| 44th | 0.00▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.03 | 56th |
| 15th | 2▼1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James MadisonJMU | Georgia SouthernGASO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts66th | −2.9 pts4th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.433rd | +5.467th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts73rd | +0.4 pts75th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JMU +9.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.5, kicking +2.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | +9.888th | −9.812th |
Season so far
James Madison7–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5Wat Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7W
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8L
at App State31–34missed −12.5
at App State31–34missed −12.5L
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5Georgia Southern3–4 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2Lvs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Wat Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is