Week 9 report · Thu, Oct 29 · 2026 Week 9
Troy
4–4 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–21FinalWe had TROY 15 – JMU 37
James Madison
7–2 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 91%TROY won
JMU 91%TROY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −20.JMU −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.1 · TROY covered by 22.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.51.5final 45 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JMU −21Llost 1.5 to the close
JMU −21Llost 1.5 to the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Troyoffense | Played like JMU +2.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJames Madison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.5%▼2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▲2.0 | 70th |
| 16th | −0.19▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.21 | 84th |
| 8th | −0.47▼0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.47▲0.50 | 92nd |
| 46th | +0.01▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.04 | 54th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.1 | 59th |
| James Madisonoffense | defenseTroy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.8%▼7.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.8%▲5.3 | 68th |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.23 | 81st |
| 9th | −0.44▼0.66 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.57 | 91st |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.15 | 43rd |
| 0th | 5▼4.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 5▲4.0 | 100th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TroyTROY | James MadisonJMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3272nd | Own 3583rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.346th | +1.354th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.5 pts2nd | −0.6 pts18th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TROY +12.7: turnovers +10.4, field position −0.9, 4th downs −1.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | +12.795th | −12.75th |
Season so far
Troy4–4 · 106th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10L
at Louisiana6–33missed +3
at Louisiana6–33missed +3L
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13Wat James Madison24–21covered +19.5
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5James Madison7–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7W
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8L
at App State31–34missed −12.5
at App State31–34missed −12.5Lvs Troy21–24missed −19.5
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 29, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is