Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boise State
6–1 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+10.4
Rank
24
Résumé
11
Projected wins
9.0▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
46%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on BOIS games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–4 · home 0–4, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.06–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins32%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 3.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game85%
Win conference55%
Make the CFP46%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 59% with a win vs Texas State, 19% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for San José State over New Mexico — swings a CFP bid between 44% and 53%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2211th
Success rate47.3%33rd
Pass EPA+0.2429th
Rush EPA+0.2112th
Explosive rate12.0%80th
Quality-drive rate56.9%32nd
Points per quality drive4.538th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0361st
Success allowed36.9%26th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0676th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0245th
Explosive allowed13.0%94th
Havoc rate16.9%19th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.468th
Turnover margin+530th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin−4.2 yd124th
Hidden points / game+2.8banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+5.5%18th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.424th
Schedule played−0.472nd
Schedule remaining−3.884th
Full schedule−1.776th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 24th · +10.4AP 20thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Boise Stateoff +0.22 11thdef +0.03 allowed · 61st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Boise Stateoff +0.22 11thdef +0.03 allowed · 61st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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