Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boise State

6–1 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+10.4
Rank
24
Résumé
11
Projected wins
9.0▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
46%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at OregonOREBOIS +26.5BOIS +24.5L 27–3430ORE · L
Sat, Sep 129/12MemphisMEMBOIS −3.9BOIS −8.5W 38–2068MEM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19South DakotaSouth DakotaBOIS −40.8BOIS −27.5W 38–2477
Sat, Sep 269/26at Western MichiganWMUBOIS +2.5BOIS −8.0W 32–783WMU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Utah StateUSUBOIS −19.0BOIS −20.5W 37–1863USU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Fresno StateFRESBOIS −3.1BOIS −6.0W 38–3150FRES · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Washington StateWSUBOIS −9.3BOIS −12.0W 31–1074WSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Texas StateTXSTBOIS −6.5BOIS −10.5TXST +10.5Lean · +0.7%
Sat, Nov 711/7at Colorado StateCSUBOIS −20.4—wk 10

Model on BOIS games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–4 · home 0–4, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.06–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins32%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game85%
Win conference55%
Make the CFP46%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2211th
Success rate47.3%33rd
Pass EPA+0.2429th
Rush EPA+0.2112th
Explosive rate12.0%80th
Quality-drive rate56.9%32nd
Points per quality drive4.538th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0361st
Success allowed36.9%26th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0676th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0245th
Explosive allowed13.0%94th
Havoc rate16.9%19th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.468th
Turnover margin+530th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin−4.2 yd124th
Hidden points / game+2.8banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+5.5%18th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.424th
Schedule played−0.472nd
Schedule remaining−3.884th
Full schedule−1.776th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 24th · +10.4AP 20thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBOISgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Boise Stateoff +0.22 11thdef +0.03 allowed · 61st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.