Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #25Houston
6–2 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–28FinalWe had HOU 33 – GASO 21
Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HOU 76%HOU won
HOU 76%HOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HOU −19.HOU −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.5 · GASO covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.56.5final 70 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Conner Weigman17/22 · 239 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8998th pct
- Comp %
- 77.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Max Johnson26/38 · 284 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7895th pct
- Comp %
- 68.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Houstonoffense | Played like GASO +1.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Southern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 60.3%▲11.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.3%▼22.4 | 6th |
| 80th | +0.29▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.28 | 20th |
| 97th | +0.89▲0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.89▼0.90 | 3rd |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.07 | 61st |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Georgia Southernoffense | defenseHouston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.4%▲6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▼3.2 | 27th |
| 87th | +0.36▲0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.22 | 13th |
| 94th | +0.67▲0.68 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.53 | 6th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.31 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| HoustonHOU | Georgia SouthernGASO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 2310th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.662nd | −3.638th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +1.3 pts97th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +4.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.7, 4th downs −1.7, penalty first downs −1.5. | +4.169th | −4.131st |
Season so far
Houston6–2 · 27th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5Wat Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5W
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5W
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5L
at Utah13–21missed +6.5
at Utah13–21missed +6.5Georgia Southern3–4 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5Lvs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7W
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameModel cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is