Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #100 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–31FinalWe had GASO 22 – JXST 30
Jacksonville State
6–2 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 71%JXST won
JXST 71%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −3.JXST −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.8 · JXST covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.2.52.5final 58 · over by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST −3Wbeat the close by 0.5
JXST −3Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Max Johnson23/33 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 69.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caden Creel17/24 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4179th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Southernoffense | Played like JXST +11.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.2%▲4.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.2%▼5.6 | 31st |
| 43rd | +0.01▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.04 | 57th |
| 35th | −0.08▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.04 | 65th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.02 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | defenseGeorgia Southern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▼5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▼0.1 | 50th |
| 80th | +0.28▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.27 | 20th |
| 82nd | +0.41▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.32 | 18th |
| 67th | +0.16▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.16 | 33rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia SouthernGASO | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3165th | Own 228th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts79th | +0.6 pts64th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 4828th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.132nd | +6.168th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +1.1 pts94th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JXST +3.0: field position −3.0, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −3.035th | +3.065th |
Season so far
Georgia Southern3–4 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5Lat Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7W
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameJacksonville State6–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2Wvs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3W
vs Florida International27–24push −3
vs Florida International27–24push −3W
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is