AP #17Florida
5–3 · Ours #33Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–32Our projected score
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #36Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.FSU 54%
FSU 54%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. FSU −1.4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 61.8
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Tramell Jones Jr.Freshman · 1 start this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.26
- Comp %
- 70.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
Ashton DanielsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2239th
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 88 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 16
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Florida Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | +0.19 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 103rd |
| 65th | 43.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.9% | 112th |
| 29th | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.08 | 86th |
| 29th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 117th |
| 16th | 15.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 57th |
| Floridaoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.18 | 126th |
| 41st | 45.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.4% | 107th |
| 9th | +0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.32 | 134th |
| 86th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 80th |
| 59th | 13.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.7% | 110th |
Team stats
| Florida StateFSU | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.242nd | +2.518th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.441st | +3.830th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%35th | 53%54th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.6522nd | 4.8117th |
| Time of possession | 27:5496th | 32:0013th |
| Plays per game | 6484th | 7026th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −2 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 7 | 12 – 16 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.4%105th | 15.5%35th |
Season so far
Florida5–3 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5W
at Texas27–24covered +11.5
at Texas27–24covered +11.5L
at Georgia8–27missed +11
at Georgia8–27missed +11Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5L
at Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is