Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–38FinalWe had UVA 27 – FSU 24
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 56%FSU won
UVA 56%FSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −2.5.UVA −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.4 · FSU covered by 32
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.9.51.5final 45 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FSU +2.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
FSU +2.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Beau Pribula14/32 · 168 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.466th pct
- Comp %
- 43.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
Ashton Daniels12/19 · 183 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1029th pct
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginiaoffense | Played like FSU +27.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.7%▼12.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.7%▲14.8 | 81st |
| 12th | −0.23▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.52 | 88th |
| 23rd | −0.23▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.69 | 77th |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.32 | 86th |
| 79th | 0▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Florida Stateoffense | defenseVirginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲9.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼9.7 | 22nd |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.19 | 21st |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.09 | 54th |
| 94th | +0.46▲0.39 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.38 | 6th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| VirginiaUVA | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 2417th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.0 pts75th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 5234th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −31.22nd | +31.298th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −2.0 pts1st | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UVA +1.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.9, kicking −0.7, 4th downs −2.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | +1.760th | −1.740th |
Season so far
Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20Lat Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5L
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31Lvs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
Wvs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5L
at Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is