Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–43FinalWe had FSU 16 – MIA 37
AP #3Miami
7–0 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIA 90%MIA won
MIA 90%MIA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIA −21.5.MIA −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.1 · FSU covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.8.56.5final 78 · over by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MIA −21Llost 1.5 to the close
MIA −21Llost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ashton Daniels15/28 · 298 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8096th pct
- Comp %
- 53.6
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Darian Mensah23/35 · 326 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3676th pct
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Stateoffense | Played like FSU +0.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiami | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.9%▼9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.9%▲3.6 | 77th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.30 | 26th |
| 95th | +0.74▲0.62 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.74▼0.65 | 5th |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.42 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▼0.09 | 84th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Miamioffense | defenseFlorida State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.2%▼10.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.2%▲2.2 | 44th |
| 62nd | +0.13▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.08 | 38th |
| 78th | +0.36▼0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.02 | 22nd |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.10 | 65th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida StateFSU | MiamiMIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3892nd | Own 2848th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.224th | +9.276th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.1 pts5th | −1.3 pts3rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FSU +1.7: turnovers −2.6, field position +3.3, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | +1.759th | −1.741st |
Season so far
Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5Lat Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Miami7–0 · 62nd-hardest schedule
W
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5Wvs Florida A&M77–7covered −59.5
W
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20W
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41W
at Clemson41–13covered −14
at Clemson41–13covered −14Wvs Florida State43–35missed −19.5
vs Florida State43–35missed −19.5W
vs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5
vs Pittsburgh52–23covered −20.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is