Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
36–50FinalWe had FSU 13 – ALA 37
AP #10Alabama
6–2 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 92%ALA won
ALA 92%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −19.ALA −19oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −23.6 · FSU covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.7.50final 86 · over by 36
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ALA −19Lmatched the close
ALA −19Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ashton Daniels17/29 · 377 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Keelon Russell23/30 · 301 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8998th pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Stateoffense | Played like ALA +16.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.6%▼1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▼3.9 | 56th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.28 | 28th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.27 | 30th |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.27 | 35th |
| 4th | 3▼2.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.1 | 96th |
| Alabamaoffense | defenseFlorida State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.1%▲0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.1%▼2.5 | 32nd |
| 96th | +0.53▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.40 | 4th |
| 98th | +0.97▲0.78 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.97▼0.75 | 2nd |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.14 | 36th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida StateFSU | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 3168th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +2.5 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.625th | +8.675th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts32nd | +0.9 pts92nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +13.2: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.0, kicking +1.7, 4th downs +1.6. | −13.24th | +13.296th |
Season so far
Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3Lat Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5L
at Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Alabama6–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9Wvs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5L
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5W
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is