Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Clemson
4–3 · Ours #54Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–31Our projected score
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #36Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.FSU 71%
FSU 71%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.FSU −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.50.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.6 · opened 50.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.FSU −5.5-108 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.9% EV
FSU −5.5-108 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Tait ReynoldsFreshman · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.06115th
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
Ashton DanielsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2239th
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 88 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 16
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Florida Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseClemson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | +0.19 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.07 | 25th |
| 66th | 43.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.6% | 63rd |
| 30th | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.19 | 8th |
| 28th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 91st |
| 17th | 15.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.1% | 28th |
| Clemsonoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124th | −0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.18 | 127th |
| 128th | 37.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.4% | 110th |
| 128th | −0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.32 | 134th |
| 90th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 80th |
| 118th | 10.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.7% | 109th |
Team stats
| Florida StateFSU | ClemsonCLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.242nd | +4.93rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.442nd | +6.89th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%37th | 46%98th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.6526th | 3.6296th |
| Time of possession | 27:5496th | 28:0089th |
| Plays per game | 6482nd | 6759th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −2 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 7 | 12 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.4%105th | 16.1%30th |
Season so far
Clemson4–3 · 27th-hardest schedule
L
at LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Wvs Charleston Southern37–0missed −42.5
L
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3Florida State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
W
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5Lat Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is