Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1
New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–34FinalWe had NMSU 14 – FSU 41
Florida State
3–4 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FSU 95%FSU won
FSU 95%FSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FSU −31.FSU −31oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.7 · NMSU covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.53.5final 51 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NMSU +31Wmatched the close
NMSU +31Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Trey Hedden26/42 · 272 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 61.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Ashton Daniels17/27 · 202 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Played like FSU +12.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.4%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.4%▲11.6 | 74th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.18 | 51st |
| 53rd | +0.10▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.30 | 47th |
| 34th | −0.07▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.12 | 66th |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Florida Stateoffense | defenseNew Mexico State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.9%▲2.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.9%▼2.8 | 42nd |
| 77th | +0.26▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.27 | 23rd |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.25 | 30th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.32 | 19th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 228th | Own 3374th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | +1.8 pts91st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.925th | +8.975th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts35th | +0.5 pts80th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FSU +5.3: field position +3.6, kicking +0.7, 4th downs +1.0. | −5.326th | +5.374th |
Season so far
New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
Lat Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7W
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3L
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Florida State3–4 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Mexico State34–17missed −31
vs New Mexico State34–17missed −31L
vs SMU24–27push +3
vs SMU24–27push +3L
at Alabama36–50covered +19
at Alabama36–50covered +19Wvs Central Arkansas34–7missed −46
W
vs Virginia38–7covered +1
vs Virginia38–7covered +1L
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5
at Louisville20–44missed +3.5L
at Miami35–43covered +19.5
at Miami35–43covered +19.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is