Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Coastal Carolina
3–5 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–22FinalWe had CCU 24 – DEL 32
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DEL 68%DEL won
DEL 68%DEL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DEL −5.DEL −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.7 · DEL covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.9.56.5final 36 · under by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CCU +5Lmatched the close
CCU +5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Deuce Bailey16/26 · 250 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Nick Minicucci24/32 · 302 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2465th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Played like DEL +1.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDelaware | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.5%▲10.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.5%▲1.0 | 30th |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.05 | 47th |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.01 | 52nd |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.09 | 41st |
| 41st | 1▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Delawareoffense | defenseCoastal Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.6%▲6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.6%▲0.5 | 30th |
| 54th | +0.07▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.12 | 46th |
| 68th | +0.24▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24 | 32nd |
| 27th | −0.12▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.33 | 73rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | DelawareDEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 161st | Own 2847th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.247th | +1.254th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | −0.5 pts22nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DEL +8.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.4, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | −8.815th | +8.886th |
Season so far
Coastal Carolina3–5 · 90th-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
Lat Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5L
vs App State32–35missed +1.5
vs App State32–35missed +1.5W
at Georgia State31–20covered +4
at Georgia State31–20covered +4Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5Wvs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameLvs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3W
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is