Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–35FinalWe had DEL 17 – VAN 43
Vanderbilt
3–5 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.VAN 94%VAN won
VAN 94%VAN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VAN −20.5.VAN −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25.5 · DEL covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.6.54.5final 61 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DEL +20.5Wmatched the close
DEL +20.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nick Minicucci11/27 · 182 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3611th pct
- Comp %
- 40.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Jared Curtis14/22 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1353rd pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Blaze Berlowitz in Q1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Delawareoffense | Played like VAN +8.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVanderbilt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 33.3%▼9.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▲16.3 | 79th |
| 23rd | −0.13▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.32 | 78th |
| 20th | −0.26▼0.47 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.53 | 80th |
| 49th | +0.03▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.07 | 51st |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| Vanderbiltoffense | defenseDelaware | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.8%▼0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.8%▲11.1 | 61st |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.12 | 56th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.09 | 60th |
| 53rd | +0.06▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.13 | 47th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DelawareDEL | VanderbiltVAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2521st | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts87th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 6774th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.841st | +2.859th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts94th | −0.5 pts21st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VAN +1.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.6, kicking −1.1, 4th downs −2.1, penalty first downs −1.5. | −1.542nd | +1.558th |
Season so far
Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
Lat Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3W
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Vanderbilt3–5 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
Wvs Delaware35–26missed −20.5
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5W
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5L
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5L
at Kentucky17–34missed +11
at Kentucky17–34missed +11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is