Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–42FinalWe had DEL 18 – UVA 35
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 84%UVA won
UVA 84%UVA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −20.5.UVA −20oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.7 · UVA covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.6.52.5final 45 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Braden Streeter2/16 · 9 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.831st pct
- Comp %
- 12.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Nick Minicucci in Q2
Beau Pribula24/29 · 279 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6291st pct
- Comp %
- 82.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Eli Holstein
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Delawareoffense | Played like UVA +31.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.2%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.2%▲11.8 | 84th |
| 14th | −0.21▼0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.37 | 86th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.67 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.60 | 90th |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.14 | 55th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.6 | 85th |
| Virginiaoffense | defenseDelaware | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 52.9%▲10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.9%▼5.3 | 15th |
| 88th | +0.37▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.30 | 12th |
| 92nd | +0.62▲0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.68 | 9th |
| 40th | −0.03▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.24 | 60th |
| 79th | 0▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DelawareDEL | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 2955th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | −2.3 pts7th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 329th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.14th | +27.196th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +1.3 pts97th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UVA +4.4: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.8, kicking −2.1, 4th downs +2.4, penalty first downs +0.8. | −4.429th | +4.471st |
Season so far
Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5Lat Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3W
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5Wvs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5L
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is