Delaware
4–4 · Ours #100Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–26Our projected score
New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #124Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.DEL 56%
DEL 56%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. DEL −2.4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Nick MinicucciJunior · 4 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1163rd
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
New starter last game
Adam DamanteJunior · 3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.16
- Comp %
- 57.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseDelaware | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128th | −0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.08 | 89th |
| 116th | 39.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.0% | 124th |
| 132nd | −0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 60th |
| 77th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.17 | 120th |
| 78th | 12.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.7% | 108th |
| Delawareoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | +0.14 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 49th |
| 59th | 44.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.0% | 66th |
| 32nd | +0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 54th |
| 98th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 54th |
| 36th | 13.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.2% | 81st |
Team stats
| New Mexico StateNMSU | DelawareDEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.2129th | +3.29th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −4.1122nd | +1.651st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 44%109th | 46%97th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.90130th | 5.123rd |
| Time of possession | 26:12119th | 27:00108th |
| Plays per game | 6397th | 6671st |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −8 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 19 – 11 | 15 – 17 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.2%41st | 14.5%65th |
Season so far
Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3W
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5Wvs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7W
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3L
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is