Week 9 report · Tue, Oct 27 · 2026 Week 9
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–21FinalWe had DEL 27 – WKU 28
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #119 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WKU 51%DEL won
WKU 51%DEL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WKU +1.5.WKU −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · DEL covered by 15.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.8.55.5final 56 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DEL +1Wlost 0.5 to the close
DEL +1Wlost 0.5 to the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Delawareoffense | Played like DEL +13.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWestern Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 54.5%▲14.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.5%▼10.5 | 13th |
| 81st | +0.30▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.18 | 19th |
| 89th | +0.57▲0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.57▼0.50 | 11th |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.20 | 69th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Western Kentuckyoffense | defenseDelaware | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.7%▲15.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.7%▼0.4 | 26th |
| 40th | −0.01▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.14 | 60th |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.53 | 89th |
| 98th | +0.61▲0.85 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.61▼0.51 | 2nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DelawareDEL | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 2849th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.974th | −7.927th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.1 pts60th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DEL +1.9: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.1, 4th downs −0.7. | +1.961st | −1.939th |
Season so far
Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3Wat Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2Wvs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1W
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1Lvs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is