Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Colorado
3–5 · Ours #89 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–23FinalWe had COLO 21 – BAY 33
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BAY 78%BAY won
BAY 78%BAY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BAY −8.5.BAY −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.7 · BAY covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.54.5final 36 · under by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Isaac Wilson12/25 · 156 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0138th pct
- Comp %
- 48.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Julian Lewis in Q3
DJ Lagway19/39 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1525th pct
- Comp %
- 48.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coloradooffense | Played like COLO +3.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBaylor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.2%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▼0.3 | 71st |
| 29th | −0.09▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.01 | 71st |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.04 | 60th |
| 23rd | −0.15▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.04 | 77th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
| Bayloroffense | defenseColorado | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.5%▼2.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▲5.0 | 70th |
| 15th | −0.20▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.26 | 85th |
| 28th | −0.15▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.37 | 72nd |
| 13th | −0.26▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.16 | 87th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ColoradoCOLO | BaylorBAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 3994th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts71st | +2.6 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8096th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.852nd | −0.848th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts8th | −0.4 pts28th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +10.4: field position +6.8, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs +1.5. | −10.410th | +10.490th |
Season so far
Colorado3–5 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5Lat Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5L
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5L
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5W
vs Kansas State27–24push −3
vs Kansas State27–24push −3Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20Wvs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5L
vs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5L
at Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1W
at UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is