Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
55–19FinalWe had BAY 25 – ASU 27
Arizona State
4–3 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ASU 55%BAY won
ASU 55%BAY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ASU −4.ASU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.8 · BAY covered by 39.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.4.49.5final 74 · over by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BAY +4Wbeat the close by 0.5
BAY +4Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
DJ Lagway25/41 · 306 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3374th pct
- Comp %
- 61.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Cutter Boley25/43 · 304 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 58.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bayloroffense | Played like BAY +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.4%▲3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.4%▼0.5 | 52nd |
| 84th | +0.33▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.38 | 16th |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.46 | 19th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.16 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Arizona Stateoffense | defenseBaylor | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.9%▲0.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▼3.5 | 61st |
| 44th | +0.01▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.11 | 56th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.14 | 51st |
| 37th | −0.04▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.09 | 63rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BaylorBAY | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3482nd | Own 2525th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts18th | +3.0 pts99th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.681st | −11.619th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +5.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.2, kicking −3.1, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | +5.273rd | −5.227th |
Season so far
Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5Wat Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5L
vs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5L
at Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1W
at UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5Arizona State4–3 · 32nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5Wat Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5Lvs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21L
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-game
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is