Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–17FinalWe had BAY 20 – AUB 34
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AUB 80%AUB won
AUB 80%AUB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AUB −7.AUB −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.1 · BAY covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.7.58.5final 33 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB −7Llost 0.5 to the close
AUB −7Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
DJ Lagway27/54 · 333 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- 0.0040th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Byrum Brown25/34 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 73.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bayloroffense | Played like BAY +5.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.6%▲1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.6%▲3.6 | 59th |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.13 | 68th |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.01 | 56th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.25 | 78th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Auburnoffense | defenseBaylor | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.8%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.8%▼2.2 | 65th |
| 14th | −0.20▼0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.15 | 86th |
| 34th | −0.09▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.02 | 66th |
| 9th | −0.33▼0.49 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.24 | 92nd |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BaylorBAY | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2415th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.9 pts12th | −1.0 pts22nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 96100th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.956th | −1.944th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +2.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −2.3, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +1.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | +2.362nd | −2.338th |
Season so far
Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
Lat Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5L
vs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5L
at Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1W
at UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5W
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7L
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is