Week 9 report · Fri, Oct 30 · 2026 Week 9
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–9FinalWe had BAY 26 – UCF 24
UCF
4–4 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BAY 55%BAY won
BAY 55%BAY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BAY +2.5.BAY −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2 · BAY covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.2.49.5final 50 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BAY −1.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
BAY −1.5Wbeat the close by 1.0The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bayloroffense | Played like BAY +21.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.5%▲11.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▼6.0 | 27th |
| 82nd | +0.30▲0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.24 | 18th |
| 96th | +0.76▲0.71 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.76▼0.59 | 4th |
| 38th | −0.04▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.01 | 62nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
| UCFoffense | defenseBaylor | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▼6.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲2.5 | 78th |
| 21st | −0.15▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.08 | 79th |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.11 | 73rd |
| 28th | −0.11▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▼0.01 | 72nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BaylorBAY | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3689th | Own 2527th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +18.590th | −18.510th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | −1.4 pts2nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +7.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.8, 4th downs +1.1. | +7.582nd | −7.518th |
Season so far
Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5L
vs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5L
at Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1Wat UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5UCF4–4 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5Wvs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10W
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5Lvs Baylor9–41missed +2.5
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 30, 5:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is