Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had AUB 14 – UGA 35
AP #1Georgia
7–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 90%AUB won
UGA 90%AUB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UGA −19.UGA −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.4 · AUB covered by 22.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.4.49.5final 51 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UGA −19Lbeat the close by 0.5
UGA −19Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Byrum Brown15/26 · 150 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0848th pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Gunner Stockton22/34 · 272 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0140th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Auburnoffense | Played like UGA +4.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.4%▼2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.4%▼3.7 | 63rd |
| 63rd | +0.14▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.33 | 37th |
| 61st | +0.17▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.34 | 40th |
| 60th | +0.11▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.34 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
| Georgiaoffense | defenseAuburn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.1%▲0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.1%▼12.1 | 14th |
| 60th | +0.12▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.09 | 40th |
| 55th | +0.11▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.14 | 45th |
| 63rd | +0.13▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.08 | 38th |
| 15th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AuburnAUB | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts92nd | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.923rd | +9.977th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AUB +12.7: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.5, kicking +1.8, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs +1.5. | +12.795th | −12.75th |
Season so far
Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5Wat Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7L
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12Wvs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5Lvs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameWvs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is