Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #18LSU
6–2 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–17FinalWe had LSU 27 – AUB 22
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 63%LSU won
LSU 63%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −6.5.LSU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5 · LSU covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.5.52final 55 · over by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB +8.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
AUB +8.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Sam Leavitt32/45 · 387 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4481st pct
- Comp %
- 71.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Byrum Brown15/24 · 160 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0238th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSUoffense | Played like LSU +17.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.5%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▼6.8 | 27th |
| 84th | +0.32▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.33 | 16th |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.49 | 19th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.17 | 28th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Auburnoffense | defenseLSU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.2%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▼6.8 | 71st |
| 37th | −0.03▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.31 | 63rd |
| 45th | 0.00▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.45 | 55th |
| 34th | −0.07▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.17 | 66th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSULSU | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2633rd | Own 2742nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts58th | +0.2 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 4727th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.171st | −7.129th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.9 pts91st | +1.8 pts99th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +0.8: field position −0.4, kicking +0.1, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +2.3. | +0.854th | −0.847th |
Season so far
LSU6–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5W
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5Wat Auburn38–17covered −7
at Auburn38–17covered −7Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5W
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5Lvs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7Lat Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is