Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Vanderbilt
3–5 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
15–21FinalWe had VAN 30 – AUB 31
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #34 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AUB 53%AUB won
AUB 53%AUB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AUB −9.5.AUB −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.2 · VAN covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.5.54.5final 36 · under by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jared Curtis22/33 · 199 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Byrum Brown18/27 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Vanderbiltoffense | Played like VAN +4.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.7%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.7%▲4.7 | 62nd |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.09 | 64th |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.15 | 70th |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.01 | 47th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Auburnoffense | defenseVanderbilt | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | 34.5%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.5%▲15.0 | 76th |
| 23rd | −0.13▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.31 | 77th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.31 | 64th |
| 20th | −0.18▼0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.31 | 80th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| VanderbiltVAN | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3061st | Own 2526th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts74th | −1.1 pts21st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.633rd | +5.667th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VAN +1.9: field position +1.7, kicking +1.5, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | +1.960th | −1.940th |
Season so far
Vanderbilt3–5 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5W
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3Lat Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5L
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5L
at Kentucky17–34missed +11
at Kentucky17–34missed +11Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2Wvs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5Wat Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7Lat Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is