Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–24FinalWe had AUB 24 – TENN 28
AP #17Tennessee
6–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 61%TENN won
TENN 61%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TENN −7.5.TENN −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · TENN covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.54final 38 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB +7Lbeat the close by 0.5
AUB +7Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Byrum Brown22/33 · 159 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3014th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
George MacIntyre8/10 · 86 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Faizon Brandon in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Auburnoffense | Played like TENN +5.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.6%▲0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▼1.4 | 56th |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.07 | 66th |
| 17th | −0.30▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.07 | 83rd |
| 83rd | +0.28▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.29 | 17th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
| Tennesseeoffense | defenseAuburn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.2%▼2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.2%▲0.6 | 48th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.01 | 50th |
| 4th | −0.66▼0.57 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.76 | 96th |
| 91st | +0.40▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.40 | 9th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AuburnAUB | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 3376th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.6 pts65th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +10.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.0, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +2.3. | −10.111th | +10.189th |
Season so far
Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10Lat Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5W
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7L
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Tennessee6–2 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5Wvs Auburn24–14covered −6.5
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5W
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5W
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5L
at South Carolina24–27missed +2.5
at South Carolina24–27missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is