Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs UK · Sat, Nov 7 · 6:15 PM ET →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tennessee
6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+14.8
Rank
12
Résumé
27
Projected wins
8.2▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
13%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on TENN games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–3 · home 1–1, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.26–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins10%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game12%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP13%
First-round bye3%
Win it all1%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0870th
Success rate44.2%56th
Pass EPA−0.14130th
Rush EPA+0.238th
Explosive rate11.0%107th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive4.353rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.147th
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed−0.302nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0790th
Explosive allowed10.4%36th
Havoc rate20.4%3rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.147th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+2.9 yd37th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins−0.86.8 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected+5.1%20th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+14.812th
Schedule played+5.529th
Schedule remaining+10.117th
Full schedule+7.217th
Pregame expected wins4.5of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 12th · +14.8AP 16thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Tennesseeoff +0.08 70thdef −0.14 allowed · 7th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Tennesseeoff +0.08 70thdef −0.14 allowed · 7th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
at 


at 
at 
at 
at