Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tennessee

6–2 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+14.8
Rank
12
Résumé
27
Projected wins
8.2▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
13%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5FurmanFurmanTENN −31.4TENN −49.0W 56–989
Sat, Sep 129/12at Georgia TechGTTENN −5.0TENN −13.0W 45–2479GT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Kennesaw StateKENNTENN −31.7TENN −34.5W 42–975KENN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TexasTEXTENN +6.3TENN +5.5L 17–2049TEX · L
Sat, Oct 310/3AuburnAUBTENN −4.4TENN −7.0W 24–1458AUB · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ArkansasARKTENN −10.8TENN −13.5W 24–1757ARK · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17AlabamaALATENN +10.9TENN +7.5W 26–1068ALA · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at South CarolinaSCTENN −1.3TENN +2.5L 24–2747TENN · L
Sat, Nov 711/7KentuckyUKTENN −4.3TENN −5.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Texas A&MTA&MTENN −0.7TENN +8.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21LSULSUTENN +5.2TENN +1.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at VanderbiltVANTENN −10.4TENN −3.0wk 13

Model on TENN games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–3 · home 1–1, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.26–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins10%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game12%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP13%
First-round bye3%
Win it all1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0870th
Success rate44.2%56th
Pass EPA−0.14130th
Rush EPA+0.238th
Explosive rate11.0%107th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive4.353rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.147th
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed−0.302nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0790th
Explosive allowed10.4%36th
Havoc rate20.4%3rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.147th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+2.9 yd37th
Hidden points / game+6.3banked
Luck, wins−0.86.8 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected+5.1%20th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+14.812th
Schedule played+5.529th
Schedule remaining+10.117th
Full schedule+7.217th
Pregame expected wins4.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 12th · +14.8AP 16thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTENNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tennesseeoff +0.08 70thdef −0.14 allowed · 7th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.