Week 4 report · Fri, Sep 25 · 2026 Week 4
Army
5–2 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–17FinalWe had ARMY 27 – TEM 29
Temple
2–6 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEM 56%ARMY won
TEM 56%ARMY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARMY −3.5.ARMY −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.5 · ARMY covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.8.48.5final 38 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Cale Hellums3/6 · 36 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.41
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ajani Sheppard11/20 · 242 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4783rd pct
- Comp %
- 55.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Armyoffense | Played like TEM +1.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTemple | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.2%▲0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼3.0 | 24th |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.10 | 21st |
| 82nd | +0.41▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.15 | 18th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.17 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Templeoffense | defenseArmy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.1%▲7.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.1%▼0.9 | 28th |
| 81st | +0.29▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▲0.04 | 19th |
| 84th | +0.47▲0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.14 | 16th |
| 70th | +0.18▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.15 | 30th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArmyARMY | TempleTEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 161st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −1.8 pts13th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 5234th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.041st | +3.059th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −1.1 pts5th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARMY +9.1: field position +3.8, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +2.5, penalty first downs +1.5. | +9.186th | −9.114th |
Season so far
Army5–2 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5Wat Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4W
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5W
at Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Temple2–6 · 85th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5Lvs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5Wat South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5L
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5L
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-game
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-gameL
at East Carolina9–17missed +4
at East Carolina9–17missed +4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 25, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is