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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida Atlantic

5–3 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−7.3
Rank
103
Résumé
62
Projected wins
6.4▲ 2.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at FloridaFLAFAU +24.3FAU +26.5L 21–6628FAU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12NavyNAVYFAU +1.6FAU +6.0W 38–3036FAU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Florida InternationalFIUFAU PKFAU −7.5W 16–1049FIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at UL MonroeULMFAU −8.7FAU −13.0W 45–1754ULM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas SouthernTexas SouthernFAU −32.0FAU −47.0W 66–1069
Sat, Oct 1710/17at ArmyARMYFAU +3.6FAU +2.5L 24–5651ARMY · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24RiceRICEFAU −7.2FAU −10.0W 51–4940RICE · W
Thu, Oct 2910/29at North TexasUNTFAU +14.6FAU +13.5L 41–4841UNT · L
Thu, Nov 511/5UTSAUTSAFAU +8.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at TulsaTLSAFAU +7.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21South FloridaUSFFAU +2.6—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at East CarolinaECUFAU +6.3—wk 13

Model on FAU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.0 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.45–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)45%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1636th
Success rate48.1%23rd
Pass EPA+0.2820th
Rush EPA+0.00106th
Explosive rate10.3%123rd
Quality-drive rate57.5%29th
Points per quality drive4.443rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.28136th
Success allowed45.3%116th
Pass EPA allowed+0.18114th
Rush EPA allowed+0.35136th
Explosive allowed15.5%131st
Havoc rate11.2%126th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.55th
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+4.0 yd31st
Hidden points / game+3.0banked
Luck, wins+1.23.8 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−8.8%131st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.3103rd
Schedule played−4.5101st
Schedule remaining−1.371st
Full schedule−3.486th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 103rd · −7.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFAUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Atlanticoff +0.16 36thdef +0.28 allowed · 136th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.