Week 8 report · Fri, Oct 23 · 2026 Week 8
Army
5–2 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–35FinalWe had ARMY 29 – TLSA 26
Tulsa
4–4 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARMY 58%ARMY won
ARMY 58%ARMY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARMY +1.5.ARMY −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3 · ARMY covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.53final 73 · over by 20
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARMY +1.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
ARMY +1.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Cale Hellums7/12 · 64 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Baylor Hayes23/34 · 262 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3071st pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Armyoffense | Played like TLSA +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulsa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 38.1%▼13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.1%▲3.6 | 64th |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.05 | 40th |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.11 | 40th |
| 60th | +0.11▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.10 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
| Tulsaoffense | defenseArmy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲7.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲2.8 | 38th |
| 87th | +0.36▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.04 | 13th |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▲0.06 | 27th |
| 94th | +0.44▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.17 | 7th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArmyARMY | TulsaTLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3483rd | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +3.3 pts99th | −2.3 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −13.715th | +13.785th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts79th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARMY +12.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.5, kicking +3.9, 4th downs +0.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | +12.394th | −12.36th |
Season so far
Army5–2 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4W
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5Wat Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Tulsa4–4 · 94th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
L
at Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3W
at Rice38–17covered −4.5
at Rice38–17covered −4.5Lvs Army35–38missed +1
vs Army35–38missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 23, 7:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is