Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Army
5–2 · Ours #70Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–30Our projected score
Memphis
6–2 · Ours #55Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MEM 53%
MEM 53%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MEM −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.58.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 58.6 · opened 57.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.ARMY +5.5-102 FanDuel51% to cover · +0.5% EV
ARMY +5.5-102 FanDuel51% to cover · +0.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Cale HellumsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.17
- Comp %
- 56.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Marcus StokesJunior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2629th
- Comp %
- 66.8
- TD
- 21
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 14
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Memphisoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseArmy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | +0.15 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.27 | 135th |
| 20th | 48.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.2% | 115th |
| 42nd | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.31 | 132nd |
| 39th | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.22 | 133rd |
| 10th | 16.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.2% | 128th |
| Armyoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | +0.26 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 72nd |
| 10th | 50.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.2% | 29th |
| 27th | +0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.07 | 30th |
| 2nd | +0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.16 | 121st |
| 83rd | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.6% | 124th |
Team stats
| MemphisMEM | ArmyARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.395th | +1.829th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.392nd | +2.245th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 52%65th | 62%8th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9278th | 4.5530th |
| Time of possession | 28:1286th | 29:3650th |
| Plays per game | 7025th | 6577th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 14 – 17 | 5 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.5%83rd | 11.9%118th |
Season so far
Army5–2 · 99th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4W
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5W
at Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Memphis6–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5Lat Tulane17–31missed −6.5
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5W
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is