Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Florida Atlantic
5–3 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–56FinalWe had FAU 27 – ARMY 30
Army
5–2 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARMY 59%ARMY won
ARMY 59%ARMY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARMY −2.5.ARMY −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.6 · ARMY covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.3.55.5final 80 · over by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARMY −2.5Wmatched the close
ARMY −2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Veltkamp34/49 · 318 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5788th pct
- Comp %
- 69.4
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Cale Hellums1/2 · 2 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.13
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Atlanticoffense | Played like FAU +2.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArmy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 56.7%▲10.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.7%▼11.3 | 10th |
| 98th | +0.58▲0.48 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.31 | 2nd |
| 92nd | +0.63▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.63▼0.33 | 8th |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.51 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.22 | 5th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Armyoffense | defenseFlorida Atlantic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | 58.0%▲10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 58.0%▼14.0 | 9th |
| 95th | +0.50▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.20 | 5th |
| 5th | −0.60▼0.91 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.93 | 95th |
| 96th | +0.52▲0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.23 | 4th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida AtlanticFAU | ArmyARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3375th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 306th | 5030th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.717th | +12.783rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts96th | +1.6 pts99th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARMY +4.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.9, kicking +1.7, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | −4.928th | +4.972nd |
Season so far
Florida Atlantic5–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4W
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5W
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
Lat Army24–56missed +2.5
at Army24–56missed +2.5W
vs Rice51–49missed −9
vs Rice51–49missed −9L
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5Army5–2 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4Wvs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5W
at Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is