Navy
2–6 · Ours #92Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–31Our projected score
Army
5–2 · Ours #71Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ARMY 58%
ARMY 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.NAVY −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.3 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −2.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.37.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 59.3 · first seen 37.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.ARMY +2.5-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +0.2% EV
ARMY +2.5-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +0.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jackson GutierrezJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.34
- Comp %
- 50.8
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Cale HellumsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.17
- Comp %
- 56.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Armyoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNavy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | +0.26 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 109th |
| 12th | 50.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.3% | 68th |
| 25th | +0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.36 | 137th |
| 3rd | +0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 22nd |
| 82nd | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 56th |
| Navyoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseArmy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | +0.29 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.27 | 135th |
| 26th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.2% | 114th |
| 36th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.31 | 132nd |
| 1st | +0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.22 | 131st |
| 41st | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.2% | 126th |
Team stats
| ArmyARMY | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.827th | −2.0118th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.244th | −3.7120th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 62%9th | 46%95th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.5527th | 4.1463rd |
| Time of possession | 29:3652nd | 31:1824th |
| Plays per game | 6580th | 6488th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 9 | 13 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.9%121st | 13.5%80th |
Season so far
Navy2–6 · 66th-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3L
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5L
vs North Texas39–49missed +3
vs North Texas39–49missed +3L
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31Army5–2 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4Wvs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5Wat Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is