Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Arizona
6–2 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–28FinalWe had ARIZ 24 – BYU 31
AP #15BYU
6–1 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BYU 67%BYU won
BYU 67%BYU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BYU −7.5.BYU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.9 · BYU covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.49final 45 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARIZ +7.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
ARIZ +7.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Noah Fifita23/31 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0140th pct
- Comp %
- 74.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Bear Bachmeier16/26 · 217 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2970th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizonaoffense | Played like BYU +10.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBYU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▼7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▼3.7 | 49th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.03 | 54th |
| 45th | +0.01▼0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.02 | 55th |
| 51st | +0.05▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.07 | 49th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| BYUoffense | defenseArizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼16.3 | 22nd |
| 71st | +0.20▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.24 | 29th |
| 73rd | +0.29▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.36 | 27th |
| 60th | +0.11▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.17 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArizonaARIZ | BYUBYU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2633rd | Own 3060th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts68th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.723rd | +9.777th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts23rd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BYU +2.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.3, kicking −0.5, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −1.5. | −2.538th | +2.562nd |
Season so far
Arizona6–2 · 73rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
Lat BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7W
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5W
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12L
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5BYU6–1 · 35th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
Wvs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7W
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5W
at TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6Wvs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12W
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5L
at UCF31–39missed −7.5
at UCF31–39missed −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is